{"topic":{"id":13883,"title":"日本犯罪白皮书摘要","slug":"topic","userId":4668,"categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2024-11-19 17:34:01.752777","bumpedAt":"2024-12-05 03:12:09.70278","views":246,"postsCount":6,"highestPostNumber":6,"likeCount":1,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"pinnedGlobally":false,"pinnedAt":null,"pinnedUntil":null,"isBanner":false,"excerpt":"目前日本是全世界最安全的国家，更重要的信息是大周期关键节点的趋势，祝福所有人都有穿越大周期的能力。全文英文版： https://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/en/72/WHITE_PAPER_ON_CRIME2023.pdf 摘要：","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"isPrivate":false,"isMembersOnly":false,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null},"realAuthor":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null},"tags":[]},"posts":[{"id":43388,"postNumber":1,"raw":"目前日本是全世界最安全的国家，更重要的信息是大周期关键节点的趋势，祝福所有人都有穿越大周期的能力。\n\n全文英文版：\nhttps://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/en/72/WHITE_PAPER_ON_CRIME2023.pdf\n\n摘要：\n[grid mode=\"tile\"]\n![image|690x475](/uploads/image/3d/e4/3de4b211ff417dbe0cbb9cc3c4f7f30182d0027932ef07cdfcf9bfd99616b7e3.avif)\n![image|690x318](/uploads/image/c7/58/c75855532b09aba081e6187c333f19d61d95824d54c9d9cb47de4867f985ba30.avif)\n![image|525x500](/uploads/image/e2/10/e210114f686cae645cb3b91e9b35dd8855ccab4c4ce3889d6f19f2c39e7076d9.avif)\n![image|690x348](/uploads/image/ad/c7/adc7782b951a8d0727bf7d1059cca3f4cceebada5346544e5f8cf7f3d6e7334b.avif)\n![image|690x359](/uploads/image/5f/0c/5f0c9c303bcba22034df571681f3e6867f60b7f2757e36c546a176b1390abcf7.avif)\n[/grid]","cooked":"

目前日本是全世界最安全的国家，更重要的信息是大周期关键节点的趋势，祝福所有人都有穿越大周期的能力。

全文英文版：

https://hakusyo1.moj.go.jp/en/72/WHITE_PAPER_ON_CRIME2023.pdf

摘要：

$\"image\"$
\n $\"image\"$
\n $\"image\"$
\n $\"image\"$
\n $\"image\"$

\n","createdAt":"2024-11-19 17:34:02.045767","updatedAt":"2024-11-19 17:34:02.045767","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":67,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":43389,"postNumber":2,"raw":"可以看出 \n1. 由于案件数量上升且逮捕人数总量较为稳定，逮捕率（在以上图中均为红线）出现了两次骤降（90 年代初和 00 年代初）。\n2. 刑事犯罪和一般刑事犯罪率的突变较为同步，在时间上几乎没有相位差。\n3. 刑事犯逮捕人数缓慢增加，一般刑事犯逮捕人数缓慢下降。（也许因为监狱数量和运营成本有限，逮捕规模总数很难增加，因此优先逮捕刑事犯）\n4. 在不同年份，盗窃等一般刑事案件总是占案件主体\n5. 直到 2010 年犯罪率恢复到 1990 年水平，直到 2015 年犯罪率恢复到危机前的水平","cooked":"

可以看出

由于案件数量上升且逮捕人数总量较为稳定，逮捕率（在以上图中均为红线）出现了两次骤降（90 年代初和 00 年代初）。
刑事犯罪和一般刑事犯罪率的突变较为同步，在时间上几乎没有相位差。
刑事犯逮捕人数缓慢增加，一般刑事犯逮捕人数缓慢下降。（也许因为监狱数量和运营成本有限，逮捕规模总数很难增加，因此优先逮捕刑事犯）
在不同年份，盗窃等一般刑事案件总是占案件主体
直到 2010 年犯罪率恢复到 1990 年水平，直到 2015 年犯罪率恢复到危机前的水平

\n","createdAt":"2024-11-19 17:45:40.460228","updatedAt":"2024-11-19 17:45:40.460228","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":208,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":43390,"postNumber":3,"raw":"其他资料 Global Peace Index： [GPI-2024-web.pdf](https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/GPI-2024-web.pdf)","cooked":"

其他资料 Global Peace Index： GPI-2024-web.pdf

\n","createdAt":"2024-11-19 17:53:54.472468","updatedAt":"2024-11-19 17:53:54.472468","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":8,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":43903,"postNumber":4,"raw":"![image|689x394](/uploads/image/3d/1e/3d1e1b1af80044dd8f6c7c838246cd3ce079bfde8d4bd7c6d3863265a068d83b.avif)","cooked":"

$\"image\"$

\n","createdAt":"2024-12-02 18:06:20.281167","updatedAt":"2024-12-02 18:06:20.281167","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":44144,"postNumber":5,"raw":"不建议发布意义不明，涉及中外对比的内容。","cooked":"

不建议发布意义不明，涉及中外对比的内容。

\n","createdAt":"2024-12-04 11:17:45.929106","updatedAt":"2024-12-04 11:17:45.929106","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":20,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5193,"username":"戴跃进","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a3/b4/a3b40ca0f9ae6151f1cba417e88ae863ac5301b15694437d2506fa2f7ab7f51a.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"为美利坚民族伟大复兴不懈奋斗","signatureCooked":"

为美利坚民族伟大复兴不懈奋斗

\n"}},{"id":44208,"postNumber":6,"raw":"![TZMC2ASB~@T()HXC8LO}7M|182x134](/uploads/image/76/89/76898d04f7d85c2875c80ae454c348d932776dcf8a543a4ad42b2e9587a1f39c.avif)","cooked":"

$\"TZMC2ASB~@T()HXC8LO}7M\"$

\n","createdAt":"2024-12-05 03:12:09.70278","updatedAt":"2024-12-05 03:12:09.70278","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"👍️","count":1,"users":[{"id":513,"username":"Grazure","name":"灰蓝天"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":513,"username":"Grazure","name":"灰蓝天"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":299,"username":"sola","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}}],"hasMore":false,"lastReadPostNumber":5,"hasUrlPostNumber":true}