{"topic":{"id":14808,"title":"【炒股日记】【亏钱日记】","slug":"topic","userId":178,"categoryId":4,"createdAt":"2025-06-23 15:31:04.589622","bumpedAt":"2026-02-26 13:10:10.746088","views":2543,"postsCount":119,"highestPostNumber":120,"likeCount":101,"closed":false,"pinned":false,"pinnedGlobally":false,"pinnedAt":null,"pinnedUntil":null,"isBanner":false,"excerpt":"看到有人说没有这个帖子，来偶尔讨论一下。注意：本贴绝无任何投资建议。","deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"isPrivate":false,"isMembersOnly":false,"category":{"id":4,"name":"谈笑风生","slug":"general","color":"25AAE2"},"author":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif"},"realAuthor":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif"},"tags":[]},"posts":[{"id":57897,"postNumber":1,"raw":"看到有人说没有这个帖子，来偶尔讨论一下。\n\n注意：本贴绝无任何投资建议。","cooked":"

看到有人说没有这个帖子，来偶尔讨论一下。

注意：本贴绝无任何投资建议。

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今年目前为止的收益图：
\n $\"48b5b3f6b5d9fd0e9c7a34b2cccfb76\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-23 15:33:59.68128","updatedAt":"2025-06-23 15:33:59.68128","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":12,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":7014,"username":"兴庆宫第一迷路幽灵","name":"post deleted by author"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":57900,"postNumber":3,"raw":"大 A？祝你幸福吧","cooked":"

大 A？祝你幸福吧

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-23 15:35:14.230562","updatedAt":"2025-06-23 15:35:14.230562","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":7,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"💔️","count":2,"users":[{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA"},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA"},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":57901,"postNumber":4,"raw":"苟全性命于乱世，不求闻达于诸侯了。","cooked":"

苟全性命于乱世，不求闻达于诸侯了。

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-23 15:36:25.847367","updatedAt":"2025-06-23 15:36:25.847367","replyToPostNumber":3,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":17,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":57903,"postNumber":5,"raw":"良禽择木而栖，贤臣择主而事。","cooked":"

良禽择木而栖，贤臣择主而事。

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之前有个人的实盘再也没出现过
\n $\"image\"$

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门友一发帖 A 股就大涨

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-24 02:29:30.631498","updatedAt":"2025-06-24 02:29:30.631498","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":10,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"hugging_face_exploding_head","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":57961,"postNumber":8,"raw":"不懂股市，但是已畏惧塬友的大手了","cooked":"

不懂股市，但是已畏惧塬友的大手了

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——發自我的手機

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今天巨阳确实超预期了，还好满仓没踏空…

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2024 年的 2576 亿元预计增长至 2030 年的 4564 亿元，年复合增长率为 10.0%；院外市场规模从 1080 亿元增长至 2064 亿元，年复合增长率为 11.4%；最具爆发性的是对外授权交易规模，从 519 亿美金预计飙升至 2659 亿美金，年复合增长率高达 31.3%[8][7][6]。\n\n### 药物获批数量创新高\n\n2025 年 1-5 月，国家药品监督管理局批准 20 余款 1 类创新药上市，数量刷新近五年同期纪录 [4][9]。这表明中国医药研发创新活力正显著增强，创新药批准上市已进入爆发期 [4][10]。近期，国家药监局集中批准了 11 款创新药上市，涵盖肿瘤、代谢疾病、化疗支持治疗等多个领域，如恒瑞医药的苹果酸法米替尼胶囊、泽璟制药的盐酸吉卡昔替尼片等 [11][12]。\n\n## BD 交易活跃度与国际合作\n\n### BD 交易创历史新高\n\n2025 年创新药领域的 BD 交易呈现爆发式增长态势，一场关于技术、资本与市场的深度博弈正在上演 [2][3]。数据显示，2025 年初至今，创新药出海交易总金额已达 455 亿美元，首付款已达到 22 亿美元，全年交易规模有望刷新历史纪录 [2][8]。\n在全球 BD 交易市场中，买方通常是强生、罗氏、默沙东等手握充沛现金流的国际知名大药企，而卖方大多是尚处于临床研究阶段的创新药企 [2][3]。这种合作的必然性从数据中得到印证：跨国药企外部采购管线来自中国企业的比例逐年上升，2020 年为 10%，到 2023 年达到 29%，2024 年进一步提升至 31%[2][3]。\n\n### 重大交易案例分析\n\n2025 年 5 月，三生制药与辉瑞达成重磅合作，辉瑞获得了三生制药的 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在全球（不包括中国内地）的独家开发、生产、商业化权利 [13][14]。根据协议，辉瑞将支付 12.5 亿美元不可退还且不可抵扣的首付款、最高可达 48 亿美元的开发、监管批准和销售里程碑付款，以及根据授权地区产品销售额计算得到的两位数百分比的梯度销售分成 [13][14]。\n这一交易金额创下了中国创新药出海首付款和总金额的双重纪录，其首付款规模达 90.24 亿元，超过三生制药 2019 年至 2024 年 5 年取得的净利润之和 [14][15]。这说明，高质量创新药已获得国际市场的高度认可，全球药企愿意为中国创新药支付更高溢价 [13][15]。\n\n### 技术领域分布\n\n在 2025 年 BD 交易版图中，ADC(抗体药物偶联物) 和 GLP-1(胰高血糖素样肽 -1) 两大领域表现尤为亮眼，成为交易市场的焦点 [2][3]。从技术领域分布来看，ADC 技术占据主导地位，交易金额达 165.27 亿美元，占比最高达 42.5%[2][16]。双特异性抗体、GLP-1 类药物、小核酸等新兴技术领域也表现活跃，分别占比 22.3%、15.4% 和 10.2%[16][2]。\n\n## 创新药股票表现分析\n\n### 创新药板块表现突出\n\n2025 年中国创新药股票表现异常亮眼，成为医药行业的最大亮点 [1][17]。A 股创新药指数年内涨幅接近 20%，港股创新药指数表现更为突出，截至 6 月 20 日涨幅高达 59%[18][19]。从年初至今的统计数据来看，港股创新药板块整体涨幅显著优于 A 股市场，呈现强势上涨态势 [18][20]。\n\n值得注意的是，香港市场的创新药表现显著优于 A 股市场 [18][19]。这一现象的背后，主要源于港股聚集了一系列优质的前沿创新药公司 [18][20]。由于创新药研发需要巨额资金投入且周期长，A 股上市标准对未盈利企业的限制使得许多创新药企选择在港交所上市 [18][19]。\n\n### 机构调研热潮\n\n随着创新药板块上涨，近一个月，不少创新药企业被机构密集调研，包括百济神州-U、迈威生物-U、华纳药厂、艾力斯等均被大量机构调研 [17][21]。Wind 数据显示，5 月份，百济神州-U 被 256 家机构调研，迈威生物-U 被 101 家机构调研，华纳药厂被 83 家机构调研，艾力斯被 60 家机构调研 [17][21]。这一现象反映出在当前市场环境下，机构对创新药板块的投资价值给予了特别关注 [17][18]。\n\n## 政策环境变化与支持措施\n\n### 国家层面政策支持\n\n2025 年政府工作报告再次提及创新药，并首次提出\"制定创新药目录\"，显示出国家对创新药产业的坚定支持 [1][10]。2025 年医保目录调整工作已经正式启动，并将首次制定商业健康保险创新药品目录（以下简称\"商保目录\"），这将为创新药打开新的支付渠道 [22][11]。\n\n国务院《全链条支持创新药发展实施方案》将 AI 药物发现、新药靶点智能挖掘等前沿技术纳入支持范围，构建从研发到支付的全周期保障 [23][7]。这一系列政策措施为创新药行业发展创造了有利的环境，推动行业实现高质量发展 [23][24]。\n\n### 丙类医保与商保目录\n\n6 月 16 日，国家医保局召开座谈会，正式启动 2025 年医保目录调整工作，并将制定第一版商业健康保险创新药品目录 [22][11]。这标志着医保谈判工作进入实质性推进阶段，未来，对于首发、稀缺、靶向等高端创新药，通过进入商保目录拿到更高溢价，或将成为另一个重要准入路径 [11][24]。\n\n商保目录的纳入原则为：超出医保基本定位暂无法纳入基本目录但创新度高、临床价值大、患者获益显著的创新药 [22][11]。纳入范围基本包括两类：一是 2020 年 1 月 1 日至方案发布前，经药监局批准上市的\"新通用名药品\"；二是方案公布前经药监局批准上市的\"罕见病治疗药物\"[11][25]。\n\n## 技术创新与 AI 赋能\n\n### AI 技术在创新药研发中的应用\n\n2025 年 AI 在创新药领域的应用迎来爆发，英矽智能、晶泰科技等企业在 AI 制药领域取得重要突破 [1][26]。AI 技术通过全流程优化和多因素整合，显著提升研发效率，传统药物研发面临的\"反摩尔定律\"困境有望得到缓解 [1][27]。\n在药物发现阶段，AI 的突破尤为显著 [28][26]。传统新药研发需要像大海捞针般筛选数万种化合物，耗时动辄数年，而 AI 大模型能通过分析海量生物数据，精准预测药物分子结构，把\"盲选\"变成\"定向狙击\"[28][29]。相关研究显示，借助 AI 平台，某些创新药的早期研发周期从传统 4-5 年缩短至 18 个月，合成的候选分子数量也从上千个压缩到几十个 [28][26]。\n\n### DeepSeek 模型引领行业变革\n\n以 DeepSeek 为代表的 AI 大模型，正在引发制药领域的深层次变革，助力药物研发周期大幅缩短，并成倍提高研发成功率 [30][31]。DeepSeek-V3 采用 MoE 架构，激活 37 亿参数即达 GPT-4 级预测精度，在阿尔茨海默症靶点发现上，将周期从 5 年减至 11 个月，成功率提升至 89%[30][31]。\n\nDeepSeek 的零样本框架仅凭 30 个活性分子即可构建靶点图谱，实现成本降低高达 90%[30][31]。DeepSeek-R1 在分子结合能优化方面表现卓越，同时生成并筛选数万种候选分子，显著降低了淘汰率 [30][26]。多家药企已开始部署应用 DeepSeek，如恒瑞医药发布《关于在公司内部全面开展 DeepSeek 应用的通知》，要求各体系、各部门根据自身业务需求，制定详细的 DeepSeek 应用计划 [31][32]。\n\n## 创新药企业表现与案例分析\n\n### 代表性企业业绩情况\n\n2025 年一季度，Pharma 板块出现分化，其中创新药业务占比较高的企业增长趋势向好，如恒瑞医药营业收入和扣非归母净利润增速分别为 20% 和 29%[12][27]。重点 Pharma 公司研发投入不断加大，创新转型成效显著，新品实现商业化后快速放量赢取市场回报 [12][7]。如 2024 年恒瑞医药、翰森制药、中国生物制药、先声药业创新药收入占比分别提升至 49.6%、77.3%、41.8%、74.3%[12][27]。\n\n英矽智能作为 AI 制药的代表企业，其经调整的亏损额持续减少，2022 年至 2024 年分别为 7080 万元、6740 万元、2270 万元 [32][26]。同时，其收入持续增长，2022 年度、2023 年度、2024 年度分别为约 3010 万美元、5120 万美元、8580 万美元，2022 年至 2024 年收入增长率为 185%[32][26]。\n\n### 出海成功案例\n\n和黄医药的呋喹替尼在海外市场表现亮眼 [33][34]。今年上半年，呋喹替尼美国市场销售额达 1.31 亿美元，中国市场销售为 6100 万美元，美国销售额是中国销售额的两倍 [33][34]。2024 年，该产品在中国以外市场实现销售额 2.906 亿美元，约占总营收的 46.11%[34][33]。\n在创新药企业国际化方面，百济神州和信达生物选择了不同的发展路径 [35][34]。百济神州自成立以来就将目光投向了国际市场，尤其是美国市场，其首款产品泽布替尼于 2019 年在美国获批上市 [35][7]。为了在美国市场站稳脚跟，百济神州不惜投入重金，开展与当时头部 BTK 抑制剂伊布替尼的\"头对头\"试验，并成功在 2022 年证明了泽布替尼的优异疗效 [35][15]。\n\n## 中国创新药全球竞争力分析\n\n### 研发管线数量与质量\n\n截至 2024 年底，中国企业研发的活跃创新药数量已达 3575 个，首次超越美国位居全球第一 [7][5]。在研管线数量更达到 7032 项，全球占比 29.5%[7][5]。这种规模优势背后是创新药企数量的快速增长——2025 年中国创新药企数量达 1218 家，仅次于美国 [7][5]。\n\n值得注意的是，这种\"量\"的增长正伴随着\"质\"的飞跃：中国 FIC(首创新药) 数量已占全球 24%，从 I 期临床到上市的成功率 (12.7%) 与美国 (12.0%) 基本持平，II 期临床成功率 (47.2%) 甚至显著高于美国 (36.4%)[7][5]。专利和文献数据同样印证了这一趋势，2019-2024 年，中国医药相关文献数量全球占比从 18% 提升至 25%，与美国差距从 12 个百分点缩至 2 个百分点 [7][5]。\n\n### 质量提升与成本优势\n\n中国创新药正在从\"Me-too\"向\"Best-in-class\"甚至\"First-in-class\"跨越 [7][5]。三生制药的 SSGJ-707（PD-1/VEGF 双抗）和英矽智能的 Rentosertib（TNIK 抑制剂）等产品均显示出全球领先的潜力 [13][26]。\n\n与此同时，中国的\"工程师红利\"和完整产业链带来显著成本优势 [7][32]。数据显示，中国医药研发人员薪资仅为美国的 1/3-1/5，而 CXO(医药外包) 企业提供的全流程服务可使研发成本降低 40%-60%[7][5]。这种\"高质量 + 低成本\"的组合，使中国创新药在全球市场具备极强的价格竞争力，也为跨国药企提供了更高的投资回报率 [7][5]。\n\n## 融资市场与投资趋势\n\n### 融资情况分析\n\n2025 年第一季度创新药领域融资总额超过 20 亿元，发生 19 起投融资事件 [1][36]。融资轮次涵盖了天使 + 轮、Pre-A 轮、A 轮、Pre-A+ 轮、A+ 轮、Pre-B 轮、B+ 轮、E 轮以及战略投资、阶段性融资等 [36][32]。早期融资事件占比 47.4%，体现了资本对创新药底层技术创新的重视 [36][1]。\n\n2025 年第一季度创新药融资偏好呈现出两端热、中间稳的特点 [36][1]。早期融资轮次活跃，反映出行业对创新源动力的持续挖掘；后期大额融资频现，体现了对成熟企业战略发展的强力助推；而中期融资轮次保持稳定，为企业从研发到商业化的过渡提供坚实保障 [36][32]。\n\n### 投资机构态度\n\n多名知名证券分析师认为，A 股港股创新药将是 2025 年全年市场热点 [21][37]。他们认为，创新药行业在技术突破、国际化加速、政策支持三轮驱动下加速发展，具备良好的投资价值 [21][19]。投资机构对创新药行业的信心主要来自于三方面：\n\n1. 政策密集利好：国资委明确鼓励国企在生物医药领域通过并购重组提升产业影响，医保集采规则优化，制定出台商业健康保险创新药品目录 [21][24]。\n2. 海外合作突破与业绩催化：国际授权加速（2025 年已近 455 亿美元），验证了中国创新药的全球竞争力；创新药企业业绩超预期，知名创新药企 2024 年净利润增长 50% 以上 [21][12]。\n3. 低估值，高科技吸引资金：创新药板块处于历史估值低位，特别是港股创新药；创新药被视为\"中国高科技皇冠\"，新质生产力的代表，人工智能 AI 的广泛应用，成为海外资金，科技资金及内地资金等配置的重要方向 [21][19]。\n\n## 风险因素识别与应对策略\n\n### 主要风险评估\n\n当前创新药行业面临的主要风险包括市场竞争风险、技术风险、人才风险等 [37][38]。市场竞争风险主要表现为同质化竞争加剧，多家企业布局相同靶点，导致产品同质化严重 [37][38]。技术风险则体现在新技术路线的不确定性，以及技术迭代速度加快导致的研发壁垒被快速突破 [37][38]。\n\n在资金方面，创新药研发需要大量资金投入，融资环境波动可能导致研发资金链断裂 [37][36]。此外，国际贸易环境变化和地缘政治风险也可能对创新药出海和国际合作产生不利影响 [37][8]。\n\n### 应对建议\n\n技术风险应对：加大研发投入，建立技术壁垒，关注 AI 制药、ADC、双特异性抗体等前沿技术 [1][16]。市场竞争风险应对：差异化竞争，找准细分市场，避免同质化研发 [37][38]。国际贸易风险应对：多元化出海策略，降低单一市场依赖 [37][8]。\n\n## 未来市场发展评估（2025-2030）\n\n### 市场规模预测\n\n根据中商产业研究院发布的预测报告，2025 年中国创新药市场规模将达到 1.22 万亿元 [4][6]。基于行业发展趋势和驱动因素分析，预计 2030 年市场规模将达到 2.28 万亿元，年复合增长率超过 13%[4][6]。同时，对外授权交易规模预计将从 2025 年的 934 亿美元增长至 2030 年的 2659 亿美元，年复合增长率高达 31.3%[6][2]。\n\n### 驱动因素权重变化\n\n未来五年内，技术创新、出海成功、AI 赋能等因素的影响权重将显著提升 [1][27]。技术创新的影响权重预计从 2025 年的 20% 提升至 2030 年的 25%，AI 赋能更是将从 10% 大幅提升至 15%[27][28]。药品支付体系改革也将成为重要驱动因素，医保目录与商保目录的协同将为更多创新药提供支付渠道 [22][11]。\n\n### 全球竞争力提升\n\n中国创新药在全球的地位不断提升，2024 年全球在研药物管线中，我国在研项目占比上升至 26.7%，仅次于美国的 49.1%[1][7]。预计到 2030 年，中国创新药市场全球占比将从当前的 15.2% 提升至 19.0%[5][6]。随着中国原研创新比重提升、交易模式创新深化，以及更多跨国药企将中国纳入全球早期研发体系，中国创新药 BD 交易规模有望在 2025-2030 年突破千亿美元大关，真正成为全球医药创新的\"双中心\"之一 [7][5]。\n\n## 投资建议与行业展望\n\n### 投资配置建议\n\n2025 年被机构普遍认为是创新药三年以上投资周期的元年 [1][21]。建议重点关注研发能力强、核心产品商业化潜力大、出海前景光明的生物科技企业或龙头创新药企 [1][37]。\n\n根据广发证券研究报告，首选推荐有重磅产品数据催化和出海竞争潜力的创新药械企业及有第二增长曲线的 Pharma 企业，以及创新药配套产业链 CXO 及上游企业 [37][39]。年度十大建议关注标的包括：恒瑞医药、康方生物、信达生物、百济神州、翰森制药、迪哲医药、石药创新等，以及科伦博泰和百利天恒等 ADC 领先企业 [37][39]。\n\n### 细分领域机会\n\n**ADC 技术**：作为 2025 年出海交易金额最高的技术领域，ADC 药物仍具备巨大发展潜力 [2][16]。ADC 药物能够将细胞毒性药物精准递送至肿瘤细胞，兼具靶向性和杀伤力，在癌症治疗领域展现出巨大潜力，近年来交易活跃，多家中国企业在此领域取得突破 [2][16]。\n\n**AI 制药**：随着 DeepSeek 等 AI 模型的发展，AI 制药将成为提升研发效率的重要工具 [30][31]。AI 技术能够加速靶点发现、药物分子设计和临床试验优化，显著缩短研发周期并降低成本 [28][26]。\n\n**双特异性抗体**：在临床试验中展现出优于传统药物的疗效，具备较大商业化前景 [16][40]。三生制药的 PD-1/VEGF 双抗 SSGJ-707、康方生物的 AK112 等产品均在此领域取得重要突破，引起国际药企的高度关注 [13][15]。\n\n### 行业发展前景\n\n展望未来，中国创新药行业将继续保持强劲增长势头 [1][5]。预计 2025 年下半年将有更多创新药获批上市，国际化进程将进一步加速，行业基本面有望持续改善 [4][5]。随着政策支持力度加大、技术创新能力提升、资本市场回暖，中国创新药行业有望实现从\"跟随者\"向\"引领者\"的历史性跨越 [1][5]。\n\n## 结论\n\n2025 年中国创新药行业正处于历史性发展机遇期，在政策支持、技术创新、国际合作等多重因素的推动下，展现出强劲的增长势头和广阔的发展前景 [1][7]。市场规模持续扩大，BD 交易活跃度创历史新高，股票表现突出，显示出行业的巨大活力和发展潜力 [4][2][18]。\n\nAI 技术在创新药研发中的应用不断深入，显著提升了研发效率并降低了成本 [28][26]。代表性企业业绩表现良好，出海成功案例不断涌现，中国创新药的全球竞争力持续提升 [12][33][5]。医保目录与商保目录的协同调整，为创新药提供了更多支付渠道 [22][11]。\n\n尽管面临市场竞争、技术迭代、资金投入等风险，但中国创新药行业通过差异化竞争、加大研发投入、多元化出海策略等措施积极应对 [37][1]。未来五年，中国创新药市场规模预计将保持年均 13% 以上的增长率，全球占比将进一步提升，有望成为全球医药创新的\"双中心\"之一 [4][5]。\n\n投资者可重点关注研发能力强、商业化潜力大、出海前景光明的优质创新药企，特别是 ADC 技术、AI 制药、双特异性抗体等细分领域的领先企业 [37][39]。随着中国创新药行业的不断发展壮大，将为患者带来更多高质量的创新药物，为全球医药产业贡献更多中国智慧和中国方案 [1][5]。","cooked":"

结合某佬的分析和自己的理解，用 AI 重写了一下，当看个乐子。

创新药板块分析与市场评估

2025 年中国创新药板块正迎来历史性发展机遇，在政策支持、技术突破、出海成功等多重因素驱动下，行业呈现强劲增长势头 [1][2]。港股创新药指数年内涨幅超过 55%，A 股创新药指数涨幅近 20%，同时，创新药 License-out 交易仅第一季度就达到 369 亿美元，展现出行业的巨大活力和全球竞争力的显著提升 [2][3]。

市场规模与增长趋势分析

市场规模持续扩大

中国创新药市场规模呈现稳步增长态势，2025 年将达到 1.22 万亿元，预计到 2030 年将攀升至 2.28 万亿元，年复合增长率超过 13%[4][5][6]。这一增长远超全球医药行业平均水平，标志着中国创新药产业已进入爆发式增长阶段 [4][7]。
\n根据最新数据显示，中国创新药市场正呈现\"三驾马车\"并驱的增长格局：院内市场规模从 2024 年的 2576 亿元预计增长至 2030 年的 4564 亿元，年复合增长率为 10.0%；院外市场规模从 1080 亿元增长至 2064 亿元，年复合增长率为 11.4%；最具爆发性的是对外授权交易规模，从 519 亿美金预计飙升至 2659 亿美金，年复合增长率高达 31.3%[8][7][6]。

药物获批数量创新高

2025 年 1-5 月，国家药品监督管理局批准 20 余款 1 类创新药上市，数量刷新近五年同期纪录 [4][9]。这表明中国医药研发创新活力正显著增强，创新药批准上市已进入爆发期 [4][10]。近期，国家药监局集中批准了 11 款创新药上市，涵盖肿瘤、代谢疾病、化疗支持治疗等多个领域，如恒瑞医药的苹果酸法米替尼胶囊、泽璟制药的盐酸吉卡昔替尼片等 [11][12]。

BD 交易活跃度与国际合作

BD 交易创历史新高

2025 年创新药领域的 BD 交易呈现爆发式增长态势，一场关于技术、资本与市场的深度博弈正在上演 [2][3]。数据显示，2025 年初至今，创新药出海交易总金额已达 455 亿美元，首付款已达到 22 亿美元，全年交易规模有望刷新历史纪录 [2][8]。
\n在全球 BD 交易市场中，买方通常是强生、罗氏、默沙东等手握充沛现金流的国际知名大药企，而卖方大多是尚处于临床研究阶段的创新药企 [2][3]。这种合作的必然性从数据中得到印证：跨国药企外部采购管线来自中国企业的比例逐年上升，2020 年为 10%，到 2023 年达到 29%，2024 年进一步提升至 31%[2][3]。

重大交易案例分析

2025 年 5 月，三生制药与辉瑞达成重磅合作，辉瑞获得了三生制药的 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在全球（不包括中国内地）的独家开发、生产、商业化权利 [13][14]。根据协议，辉瑞将支付 12.5 亿美元不可退还且不可抵扣的首付款、最高可达 48 亿美元的开发、监管批准和销售里程碑付款，以及根据授权地区产品销售额计算得到的两位数百分比的梯度销售分成 [13][14]。
\n这一交易金额创下了中国创新药出海首付款和总金额的双重纪录，其首付款规模达 90.24 亿元，超过三生制药 2019 年至 2024 年 5 年取得的净利润之和 [14][15]。这说明，高质量创新药已获得国际市场的高度认可，全球药企愿意为中国创新药支付更高溢价 [13][15]。

技术领域分布

在 2025 年 BD 交易版图中，ADC(抗体药物偶联物) 和 GLP-1(胰高血糖素样肽 -1) 两大领域表现尤为亮眼，成为交易市场的焦点 [2][3]。从技术领域分布来看，ADC 技术占据主导地位，交易金额达 165.27 亿美元，占比最高达 42.5%[2][16]。双特异性抗体、GLP-1 类药物、小核酸等新兴技术领域也表现活跃，分别占比 22.3%、15.4% 和 10.2%[16][2]。

创新药股票表现分析

创新药板块表现突出

2025 年中国创新药股票表现异常亮眼，成为医药行业的最大亮点 [1][17]。A 股创新药指数年内涨幅接近 20%，港股创新药指数表现更为突出，截至 6 月 20 日涨幅高达 59%[18][19]。从年初至今的统计数据来看，港股创新药板块整体涨幅显著优于 A 股市场，呈现强势上涨态势 [18][20]。

值得注意的是，香港市场的创新药表现显著优于 A 股市场 [18][19]。这一现象的背后，主要源于港股聚集了一系列优质的前沿创新药公司 [18][20]。由于创新药研发需要巨额资金投入且周期长，A 股上市标准对未盈利企业的限制使得许多创新药企选择在港交所上市 [18][19]。

机构调研热潮

随着创新药板块上涨，近一个月，不少创新药企业被机构密集调研，包括百济神州-U、迈威生物-U、华纳药厂、艾力斯等均被大量机构调研 [17][21]。Wind 数据显示，5 月份，百济神州-U 被 256 家机构调研，迈威生物-U 被 101 家机构调研，华纳药厂被 83 家机构调研，艾力斯被 60 家机构调研 [17][21]。这一现象反映出在当前市场环境下，机构对创新药板块的投资价值给予了特别关注 [17][18]。

政策环境变化与支持措施

国家层面政策支持

2025 年政府工作报告再次提及创新药，并首次提出\"制定创新药目录\"，显示出国家对创新药产业的坚定支持 [1][10]。2025 年医保目录调整工作已经正式启动，并将首次制定商业健康保险创新药品目录（以下简称\"商保目录\"），这将为创新药打开新的支付渠道 [22][11]。

国务院《全链条支持创新药发展实施方案》将 AI 药物发现、新药靶点智能挖掘等前沿技术纳入支持范围，构建从研发到支付的全周期保障 [23][7]。这一系列政策措施为创新药行业发展创造了有利的环境，推动行业实现高质量发展 [23][24]。

丙类医保与商保目录

6 月 16 日，国家医保局召开座谈会，正式启动 2025 年医保目录调整工作，并将制定第一版商业健康保险创新药品目录 [22][11]。这标志着医保谈判工作进入实质性推进阶段，未来，对于首发、稀缺、靶向等高端创新药，通过进入商保目录拿到更高溢价，或将成为另一个重要准入路径 [11][24]。

商保目录的纳入原则为：超出医保基本定位暂无法纳入基本目录但创新度高、临床价值大、患者获益显著的创新药 [22][11]。纳入范围基本包括两类：一是 2020 年 1 月 1 日至方案发布前，经药监局批准上市的\"新通用名药品\"；二是方案公布前经药监局批准上市的\"罕见病治疗药物\"[11][25]。

技术创新与 AI 赋能

AI 技术在创新药研发中的应用

2025 年 AI 在创新药领域的应用迎来爆发，英矽智能、晶泰科技等企业在 AI 制药领域取得重要突破 [1][26]。AI 技术通过全流程优化和多因素整合，显著提升研发效率，传统药物研发面临的\"反摩尔定律\"困境有望得到缓解 [1][27]。
\n在药物发现阶段，AI 的突破尤为显著 [28][26]。传统新药研发需要像大海捞针般筛选数万种化合物，耗时动辄数年，而 AI 大模型能通过分析海量生物数据，精准预测药物分子结构，把\"盲选\"变成\"定向狙击\"[28][29]。相关研究显示，借助 AI 平台，某些创新药的早期研发周期从传统 4-5 年缩短至 18 个月，合成的候选分子数量也从上千个压缩到几十个 [28][26]。

DeepSeek 模型引领行业变革

以 DeepSeek 为代表的 AI 大模型，正在引发制药领域的深层次变革，助力药物研发周期大幅缩短，并成倍提高研发成功率 [30][31]。DeepSeek-V3 采用 MoE 架构，激活 37 亿参数即达 GPT-4 级预测精度，在阿尔茨海默症靶点发现上，将周期从 5 年减至 11 个月，成功率提升至 89%[30][31]。

DeepSeek 的零样本框架仅凭 30 个活性分子即可构建靶点图谱，实现成本降低高达 90%[30][31]。DeepSeek-R1 在分子结合能优化方面表现卓越，同时生成并筛选数万种候选分子，显著降低了淘汰率 [30][26]。多家药企已开始部署应用 DeepSeek，如恒瑞医药发布《关于在公司内部全面开展 DeepSeek 应用的通知》，要求各体系、各部门根据自身业务需求，制定详细的 DeepSeek 应用计划 [31][32]。

创新药企业表现与案例分析

代表性企业业绩情况

2025 年一季度，Pharma 板块出现分化，其中创新药业务占比较高的企业增长趋势向好，如恒瑞医药营业收入和扣非归母净利润增速分别为 20% 和 29%[12][27]。重点 Pharma 公司研发投入不断加大，创新转型成效显著，新品实现商业化后快速放量赢取市场回报 [12][7]。如 2024 年恒瑞医药、翰森制药、中国生物制药、先声药业创新药收入占比分别提升至 49.6%、77.3%、41.8%、74.3%[12][27]。

英矽智能作为 AI 制药的代表企业，其经调整的亏损额持续减少，2022 年至 2024 年分别为 7080 万元、6740 万元、2270 万元 [32][26]。同时，其收入持续增长，2022 年度、2023 年度、2024 年度分别为约 3010 万美元、5120 万美元、8580 万美元，2022 年至 2024 年收入增长率为 185%[32][26]。

出海成功案例

和黄医药的呋喹替尼在海外市场表现亮眼 [33][34]。今年上半年，呋喹替尼美国市场销售额达 1.31 亿美元，中国市场销售为 6100 万美元，美国销售额是中国销售额的两倍 [33][34]。2024 年，该产品在中国以外市场实现销售额 2.906 亿美元，约占总营收的 46.11%[34][33]。
\n在创新药企业国际化方面，百济神州和信达生物选择了不同的发展路径 [35][34]。百济神州自成立以来就将目光投向了国际市场，尤其是美国市场，其首款产品泽布替尼于 2019 年在美国获批上市 [35][7]。为了在美国市场站稳脚跟，百济神州不惜投入重金，开展与当时头部 BTK 抑制剂伊布替尼的\"头对头\"试验，并成功在 2022 年证明了泽布替尼的优异疗效 [35][15]。

中国创新药全球竞争力分析

研发管线数量与质量

截至 2024 年底，中国企业研发的活跃创新药数量已达 3575 个，首次超越美国位居全球第一 [7][5]。在研管线数量更达到 7032 项，全球占比 29.5%[7][5]。这种规模优势背后是创新药企数量的快速增长——2025 年中国创新药企数量达 1218 家，仅次于美国 [7][5]。

值得注意的是，这种\"量\"的增长正伴随着\"质\"的飞跃：中国 FIC(首创新药) 数量已占全球 24%，从 I 期临床到上市的成功率 (12.7%) 与美国 (12.0%) 基本持平，II 期临床成功率 (47.2%) 甚至显著高于美国 (36.4%)[7][5]。专利和文献数据同样印证了这一趋势，2019-2024 年，中国医药相关文献数量全球占比从 18% 提升至 25%，与美国差距从 12 个百分点缩至 2 个百分点 [7][5]。

质量提升与成本优势

中国创新药正在从\"Me-too\"向\"Best-in-class\"甚至\"First-in-class\"跨越 [7][5]。三生制药的 SSGJ-707（PD-1/VEGF 双抗）和英矽智能的 Rentosertib（TNIK 抑制剂）等产品均显示出全球领先的潜力 [13][26]。

与此同时，中国的\"工程师红利\"和完整产业链带来显著成本优势 [7][32]。数据显示，中国医药研发人员薪资仅为美国的 1/3-1/5，而 CXO(医药外包) 企业提供的全流程服务可使研发成本降低 40%-60%[7][5]。这种\"高质量 + 低成本\"的组合，使中国创新药在全球市场具备极强的价格竞争力，也为跨国药企提供了更高的投资回报率 [7][5]。

融资市场与投资趋势

融资情况分析

2025 年第一季度创新药领域融资总额超过 20 亿元，发生 19 起投融资事件 [1][36]。融资轮次涵盖了天使 + 轮、Pre-A 轮、A 轮、Pre-A+ 轮、A+ 轮、Pre-B 轮、B+ 轮、E 轮以及战略投资、阶段性融资等 [36][32]。早期融资事件占比 47.4%，体现了资本对创新药底层技术创新的重视 [36][1]。

2025 年第一季度创新药融资偏好呈现出两端热、中间稳的特点 [36][1]。早期融资轮次活跃，反映出行业对创新源动力的持续挖掘；后期大额融资频现，体现了对成熟企业战略发展的强力助推；而中期融资轮次保持稳定，为企业从研发到商业化的过渡提供坚实保障 [36][32]。

投资机构态度

多名知名证券分析师认为，A 股港股创新药将是 2025 年全年市场热点 [21][37]。他们认为，创新药行业在技术突破、国际化加速、政策支持三轮驱动下加速发展，具备良好的投资价值 [21][19]。投资机构对创新药行业的信心主要来自于三方面：

政策密集利好：国资委明确鼓励国企在生物医药领域通过并购重组提升产业影响，医保集采规则优化，制定出台商业健康保险创新药品目录 [21][24]。
海外合作突破与业绩催化：国际授权加速（2025 年已近 455 亿美元），验证了中国创新药的全球竞争力；创新药企业业绩超预期，知名创新药企 2024 年净利润增长 50% 以上 [21][12]。
低估值，高科技吸引资金：创新药板块处于历史估值低位，特别是港股创新药；创新药被视为\"中国高科技皇冠\"，新质生产力的代表，人工智能 AI 的广泛应用，成为海外资金，科技资金及内地资金等配置的重要方向 [21][19]。

风险因素识别与应对策略

主要风险评估

当前创新药行业面临的主要风险包括市场竞争风险、技术风险、人才风险等 [37][38]。市场竞争风险主要表现为同质化竞争加剧，多家企业布局相同靶点，导致产品同质化严重 [37][38]。技术风险则体现在新技术路线的不确定性，以及技术迭代速度加快导致的研发壁垒被快速突破 [37][38]。

在资金方面，创新药研发需要大量资金投入，融资环境波动可能导致研发资金链断裂 [37][36]。此外，国际贸易环境变化和地缘政治风险也可能对创新药出海和国际合作产生不利影响 [37][8]。

应对建议

技术风险应对：加大研发投入，建立技术壁垒，关注 AI 制药、ADC、双特异性抗体等前沿技术 [1][16]。市场竞争风险应对：差异化竞争，找准细分市场，避免同质化研发 [37][38]。国际贸易风险应对：多元化出海策略，降低单一市场依赖 [37][8]。

未来市场发展评估（2025-2030）

市场规模预测

根据中商产业研究院发布的预测报告，2025 年中国创新药市场规模将达到 1.22 万亿元 [4][6]。基于行业发展趋势和驱动因素分析，预计 2030 年市场规模将达到 2.28 万亿元，年复合增长率超过 13%[4][6]。同时，对外授权交易规模预计将从 2025 年的 934 亿美元增长至 2030 年的 2659 亿美元，年复合增长率高达 31.3%[6][2]。

驱动因素权重变化

未来五年内，技术创新、出海成功、AI 赋能等因素的影响权重将显著提升 [1][27]。技术创新的影响权重预计从 2025 年的 20% 提升至 2030 年的 25%，AI 赋能更是将从 10% 大幅提升至 15%[27][28]。药品支付体系改革也将成为重要驱动因素，医保目录与商保目录的协同将为更多创新药提供支付渠道 [22][11]。

全球竞争力提升

中国创新药在全球的地位不断提升，2024 年全球在研药物管线中，我国在研项目占比上升至 26.7%，仅次于美国的 49.1%[1][7]。预计到 2030 年，中国创新药市场全球占比将从当前的 15.2% 提升至 19.0%[5][6]。随着中国原研创新比重提升、交易模式创新深化，以及更多跨国药企将中国纳入全球早期研发体系，中国创新药 BD 交易规模有望在 2025-2030 年突破千亿美元大关，真正成为全球医药创新的\"双中心\"之一 [7][5]。

投资建议与行业展望

投资配置建议

2025 年被机构普遍认为是创新药三年以上投资周期的元年 [1][21]。建议重点关注研发能力强、核心产品商业化潜力大、出海前景光明的生物科技企业或龙头创新药企 [1][37]。

根据广发证券研究报告，首选推荐有重磅产品数据催化和出海竞争潜力的创新药械企业及有第二增长曲线的 Pharma 企业，以及创新药配套产业链 CXO 及上游企业 [37][39]。年度十大建议关注标的包括：恒瑞医药、康方生物、信达生物、百济神州、翰森制药、迪哲医药、石药创新等，以及科伦博泰和百利天恒等 ADC 领先企业 [37][39]。

细分领域机会

ADC 技术：作为 2025 年出海交易金额最高的技术领域，ADC 药物仍具备巨大发展潜力 [2][16]。ADC 药物能够将细胞毒性药物精准递送至肿瘤细胞，兼具靶向性和杀伤力，在癌症治疗领域展现出巨大潜力，近年来交易活跃，多家中国企业在此领域取得突破 [2][16]。

AI 制药：随着 DeepSeek 等 AI 模型的发展，AI 制药将成为提升研发效率的重要工具 [30][31]。AI 技术能够加速靶点发现、药物分子设计和临床试验优化，显著缩短研发周期并降低成本 [28][26]。

双特异性抗体：在临床试验中展现出优于传统药物的疗效，具备较大商业化前景 [16][40]。三生制药的 PD-1/VEGF 双抗 SSGJ-707、康方生物的 AK112 等产品均在此领域取得重要突破，引起国际药企的高度关注 [13][15]。

行业发展前景

展望未来，中国创新药行业将继续保持强劲增长势头 [1][5]。预计 2025 年下半年将有更多创新药获批上市，国际化进程将进一步加速，行业基本面有望持续改善 [4][5]。随着政策支持力度加大、技术创新能力提升、资本市场回暖，中国创新药行业有望实现从\"跟随者\"向\"引领者\"的历史性跨越 [1][5]。

结论

2025 年中国创新药行业正处于历史性发展机遇期，在政策支持、技术创新、国际合作等多重因素的推动下，展现出强劲的增长势头和广阔的发展前景 [1][7]。市场规模持续扩大，BD 交易活跃度创历史新高，股票表现突出，显示出行业的巨大活力和发展潜力 [4][2][18]。

AI 技术在创新药研发中的应用不断深入，显著提升了研发效率并降低了成本 [28][26]。代表性企业业绩表现良好，出海成功案例不断涌现，中国创新药的全球竞争力持续提升 [12][33][5]。医保目录与商保目录的协同调整，为创新药提供了更多支付渠道 [22][11]。

尽管面临市场竞争、技术迭代、资金投入等风险，但中国创新药行业通过差异化竞争、加大研发投入、多元化出海策略等措施积极应对 [37][1]。未来五年，中国创新药市场规模预计将保持年均 13% 以上的增长率，全球占比将进一步提升，有望成为全球医药创新的\"双中心\"之一 [4][5]。

投资者可重点关注研发能力强、商业化潜力大、出海前景光明的优质创新药企，特别是 ADC 技术、AI 制药、双特异性抗体等细分领域的领先企业 [37][39]。随着中国创新药行业的不断发展壮大，将为患者带来更多高质量的创新药物，为全球医药产业贡献更多中国智慧和中国方案 [1][5]。

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创新药，之前看督工和王局做过立场截然相反的报道就感觉很有意思。以前从没注意这个领域发展起来了。

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gpt 炒股年收益能有多少？o3-pro 的基本面分析还是非常靠谱。

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-25 03:04:40.463697","updatedAt":"2025-06-25 03:04:40.463697","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":24,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":58177,"postNumber":13,"raw":"军工踏空了\n昨天觉得停战和阅兵利好出尽就走了\n感觉自己的判断时机有问题","cooked":"

军工踏空了
\n昨天觉得停战和阅兵利好出尽就走了
\n感觉自己的判断时机有问题

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-25 03:18:27.997587","updatedAt":"2025-06-25 03:18:27.997587","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":33,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"wave_gif","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":58199,"postNumber":14,"raw":"今天大盘疯了？三根大阳柱…","cooked":"

今天大盘疯了？三根大阳柱…

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-25 06:41:35.061925","updatedAt":"2025-06-25 06:41:35.061925","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":13,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":58201,"postNumber":15,"raw":"可以模拟一个试试","cooked":"

可以模拟一个试试

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-25 07:03:59.699652","updatedAt":"2025-06-25 07:03:59.699652","replyToPostNumber":12,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":8,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":58202,"postNumber":16,"raw":"涨的莫名其妙，停战消息有这么好吗。另外我虽然喜欢跨境支付通的消息，但我想影响不算大。","cooked":"

涨的莫名其妙，停战消息有这么好吗。另外我虽然喜欢跨境支付通的消息，但我想影响不算大。

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-25 07:11:18.400438","updatedAt":"2025-06-25 07:13:06.026068","replyToPostNumber":13,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":42,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":58261,"postNumber":17,"raw":"纯看消息面炒股是行不通的，任何消息都可以从两个方向解读。","cooked":"

纯看消息面炒股是行不通的，任何消息都可以从两个方向解读。

\n","createdAt":"2025-06-25 14:15:14.17355","updatedAt":"2025-06-25 14:15:14.17355","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":28,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":7528,"username":"夜阑观星海","name":null},{"id":7708,"username":"Jiang_a_String","name":"江永不方（江一串😁）"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":425,"username":"Ogiso_Setsuna","name":"小木曽雪菜","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/84/e3/84e328169491dbc81e9b54386b259ed63a8e6678875dcf17803ec69c4c25cb99.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":58431,"postNumber":18,"raw":"睡觉会导致亏钱。不要熬夜……\n昨天起晚了，把弘业期货出了，没来得及撤单。\n今天起晚了，cxy 和 xd 的 T 没做，又血亏 2 个点。","cooked":"

睡觉会导致亏钱。不要熬夜……
\n昨天起晚了，把弘业期货出了，没来得及撤单。
\n今天起晚了，cxy 和 xd 的 T 没做，又血亏 2 个点。

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$\"image\"$

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我做空中概了，see how it turns out 👀

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用什么手段做的空？ETF 期权？

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$FXI

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六月结束🔚
\n $\"IMG_2282\"$

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开始持有中证 2000 增强的时候这玩意儿还是个规模 3,000 万，要开清盘大会的小透明。几个月不见就破亿了，热闹的跟菜市场一样。可惜老基金经理已经走人，把手下的一堆基金扔给他同事了，也看不到现在的光景。

话说回来，小微盘还涨个没完了？估值什么的看着有点危。

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$\"Gu4D4r6WwAA1BDt\"$

关于“抄底”的历史数据

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根据余力的说法 A 股红利主要是过去四个季度保险资金增量一万亿，但港股红利涨幅更好是谁在买？A/H 比价 124 接近历史低位了。

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还以为关税落地震荡结束了，从德国取点钱出来用用，昨晚德国演了一出”天地板“，什么玩意？欧盟协议怎么样欧洲人自己还拿不定主意的？
\n草一天之后涨回来了，全世界要联手坑我（）

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从这里到现在又涨了 30%

其实对这方面完全不了解所以一直没敢上车

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下半年还会继续涨的。

短期会回调。

创新药对标的是新质生产力，不是传统的医药。

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先等回调，现在仓位打满了也没钱

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我预计回调 10 个点左右

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润本相对于彩虹太弱了，希望这周能让我有所收益。

九芝堂趋势走得也太差了，进去就连续吃面，明天就砸了。

创新药回调不错，明天重新建仓。

科大讯飞请不要让我失望。

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科创芯片 ETF 周四下午 -1 进的，周五爆吃 11 个点，牛逼。

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r 一串老师有没有考虑美股/港股？

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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考虑，但是没有办法投资捏。。。大一就想梭哈 nv 了

好在至少未来一年，A 股不会太差。

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看不懂了周五中午把科创 50 卖飞了
\n从年初拿到现在的科创，中间还加过仓，但是真看不懂了

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肯定拿住啊，这波科芯 + 创新药我现在满仓在这俩，还有一点灵活资金梭在安琪酵母和顺威

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$\"image\"$

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股神，看看投资组合，我国庆后准备进场，抄一下你的

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这个月做港股创新药 ETF 呗

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我之前买了点创新药，全清仓了
\n换成纳斯达克 + 标普，配比大概 2:1
\n还整了点黄金
\n国庆前回调了几天 $\":cat_see_no_evil:\"$

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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十月创新药要起飞了

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是受川主席跟 Pfizer 签协议影响吗？

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持金过节，还能看看外盘 😋

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签约落地

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今日入金 20k，亏 0.7%

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买黄金？

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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A 股 + ETF

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和我一起梭哈纳斯达克和 BTC 吧！ 🤣

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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没 HK 银行账户😅

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纳斯达克可以买支付宝场外，一周定投几百（场外限购了，我买的天宏每天只能买 100）
\nBTC 我买的不多，币安 C2C 买入，一周大概买 20-30 块，纯看心情 🤣

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tanonymous_coward:\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\n
没 HK 银行账户😅
\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

我开了港卡感觉没什么卵用，劵商开了盈立和 ibkr，入了点金，买了 TQQQ 和短期国债

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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享币安人生

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好吧。

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昨天赚的今天全吐出来了

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你买了哪些股票？

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恒科恒互 etf，一些黄金股，因为成本不高今天低开不太确定要不要跑，反正中长期看好就没走

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今年黄金基金给我赚了不少
\n看看过年能不能出掉换实体金满足一下小愿望

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66766,"postNumber":58,"raw":"我 c，昨天晚上啥情况，美股和虚拟币大跌啊，国庆涨的又给我吐出来了\n[grid mode=\"tile\"]\n![IMG_7496|230x500](/uploads/image/93/74/9374ce870efebcc17b96aaba89c4d8524af9f1f14df4e115fc007f137c1cece1.avif)\n![IMG_7497|230x500](/uploads/image/a8/f7/a8f78ff38009f69c8accef395963035b2357a683435c080e5d3dbbd3c82024bb.avif)\n[/grid]","cooked":"

我 c，昨天晚上啥情况，美股和虚拟币大跌啊，国庆涨的又给我吐出来了

$\"IMG_7496\"$
\n $\"IMG_7497\"$

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ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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新一轮贸易战开打。停船收费，稀土长臂管辖

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AI 泡泡要破了

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昨晚一直在弹通知，整得没睡好

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好吧。

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特朗普没拿到诺贝尔和平奖哈气了

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 04:46:55.918603","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 04:46:55.918603","replyToPostNumber":58,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":15,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"🤣️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66775,"postNumber":64,"raw":"这么快就破了，真的假的。我感觉得等到国内平替都 ipo 融到钱的时候吧 :face_with_raised_eyebrow:","cooked":"

这么快就破了，真的假的。我感觉得等到国内平替都 ipo 融到钱的时候吧 🤨

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 04:58:43.793642","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 04:58:43.793642","replyToPostNumber":60,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":32,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":182,"username":"duroy","name":"duroy","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/d1/3d/d13d8991365885ad7355d2be1d8aabbe32633dee456adacc58d783b22a2c238f.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66792,"postNumber":65,"raw":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html\n\n川子放大招了\n\n* President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a new tariff of 100% on imports from China“over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,”starting on Nov. 1.\n* Trump also said that the U.S. on that same date also would impose export controls on“any and all critical software.”\n* The move is in retaliation for new export controls that China imposed on rare earths minerals.\n\n起因：\n[China’s Ministry of Commerce](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_6cb42957741440c6984de696b70df9ae.html) on Thursday said that starting Dec. 1 foreign entities must have a license to export products that contain more than 0.1% of rare earths sourced from that country, or that are manufactured using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology.\n\n川子几乎每条推特都带上\n> Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n>DONALD J. TRUMP\nPRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA \n\n结尾，真 tm 恶心。\n\nhttps://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115351840469973590","cooked":"\n

川子放大招了

President Donald Trump said the United States would impose a new tariff of 100% on imports from China“over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,”starting on Nov. 1.
Trump also said that the U.S. on that same date also would impose export controls on“any and all critical software.”
The move is in retaliation for new export controls that China imposed on rare earths minerals.

起因：
\nChina’s Ministry of Commerce on Thursday said that starting Dec. 1 foreign entities must have a license to export products that contain more than 0.1% of rare earths sourced from that country, or that are manufactured using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology.

川子几乎每条推特都带上

\n
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
\nDONALD J. TRUMP
\nPRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
\n

结尾，真 tm 恶心。

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115351840469973590

","createdAt":"2025-10-11 06:56:03.316442","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 07:00:57.210165","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":162,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66797,"postNumber":66,"raw":"![🥲](/uploads/image/36/d7/36d7c17af2f5190b7e6d23f79f5b36fdf9117c8ef03087e140cdda8ffcf4cddf.avif)\n\n股票比手机电量还红，但是是美股","cooked":"

$\"🥲\"$

股票比手机电量还红，但是是美股

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 07:34:12.434386","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 07:34:12.434386","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":16,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/f7/1b/f71bbda87a32de08df517fe7ee4a14e3f63bfd1b2105d3ddb8ba1f4c2eaa1c29.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"[right]——發自我的手機[/right]","signatureCooked":"

——發自我的手機

"}},{"id":66810,"postNumber":67,"raw":"目前的投资组合：\n![image|690x443](/uploads/image/78/89/78895a922d1e3a1be407534c0928033a15f695aa023c0cfcc8fe66370aea6e21.avif)","cooked":"

目前的投资组合：
\n $\"image\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 13:41:39.333274","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 13:41:39.333274","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":9,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66811,"postNumber":68,"raw":"我准备多买金了，美股适当少投点，保证金：美股 = 1:1","cooked":"

我准备多买金了，美股适当少投点，保证金：美股 = 1:1

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 13:50:52.998242","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 13:50:52.998242","replyToPostNumber":67,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":24,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66812,"postNumber":69,"raw":"太没实力了，还开 CF 盾，川川有本事就让 D 哥打\n\n![image|690x269](/uploads/image/21/94/2194751bca4c84d2ffdbe0133392148732b4b3cbc318f1475c46a68d53b5d124.avif)","cooked":"

太没实力了，还开 CF 盾，川川有本事就让 D 哥打

$\"image\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 13:53:38.32192","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 13:53:38.32192","replyToPostNumber":65,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":22,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"🤣️","count":1,"users":[{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66815,"postNumber":70,"raw":"川子推特股民必关","cooked":"

川子推特股民必关

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 14:02:54.791983","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 14:02:54.791983","replyToPostNumber":69,"replyCount":2,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":8,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66817,"postNumber":71,"raw":"川子专门在 a 股不开盘的时候发消息","cooked":"

川子专门在 a 股不开盘的时候发消息

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-11 15:16:29.631738","updatedAt":"2025-10-11 15:16:29.631738","replyToPostNumber":70,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":16,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":182,"username":"duroy","name":"duroy"},{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66840,"postNumber":72,"raw":"以后不需要看财经新闻了\n直接看川川的 TrustSocial 就够了\n我感觉适当可以买点 btc 了\nc2c 买 usdt 今天我看也涨价了\n哄抬 b 价\n![image|424x500](/uploads/image/b2/b8/b2b8e892b498400aed2cd8ffc95a3be917ec06ee329fe7f4fa62ff465e9873bc.avif)","cooked":"

以后不需要看财经新闻了
\n直接看川川的 TrustSocial 就够了
\n我感觉适当可以买点 btc 了
\nc2c 买 usdt 今天我看也涨价了
\n哄抬 b 价
\n $\"image\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 05:34:51.319541","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 05:42:14.78193","replyToPostNumber":70,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":48,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":2,"publicVersion":2,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66849,"postNumber":73,"raw":"草泥马 trump","cooked":"

草泥马 trump

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 09:20:40.234098","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 09:20:40.234098","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":4,"wordCount":4,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"plus1","count":1,"users":[{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"💯️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":4,"users":[{"id":182,"username":"duroy","name":"duroy"},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"},{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66867,"postNumber":74,"raw":"虽然我满仓里没有一个科技，基本都是低位，但按照我的认知，我还是隔夜单按了。\n\n4.7 我满仓吃满了跌停。","cooked":"

虽然我满仓里没有一个科技，基本都是低位，但按照我的认知，我还是隔夜单按了。

4.7 我满仓吃满了跌停。

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 14:17:12.292785","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 14:17:12.292785","replyToPostNumber":73,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":47,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66872,"postNumber":75,"raw":"隔夜单挂的价格是跌停吗？","cooked":"

隔夜单挂的价格是跌停吗？

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 14:58:43.395871","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 14:58:43.395871","replyToPostNumber":74,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":12,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66874,"postNumber":76,"raw":"虽然理论上 btc 不上杠杆确实可以随意一点\n不过不建议急着进场抄底","cooked":"

虽然理论上 btc 不上杠杆确实可以随意一点
\n不过不建议急着进场抄底

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 15:56:47.588497","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 15:56:47.588497","replyToPostNumber":72,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":29,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66876,"postNumber":77,"raw":"是啊。。","cooked":"

是啊。。

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 16:10:30.55216","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 16:10:30.55216","replyToPostNumber":75,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":3,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66882,"postNumber":78,"raw":"是的，我只买现货\n而且因为我定投的原因，这次行情大波动我只亏了 1%\n还是要做时间的朋友","cooked":"

是的，我只买现货
\n而且因为我定投的原因，这次行情大波动我只亏了 1%
\n还是要做时间的朋友

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 16:54:01.460924","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 16:54:01.460924","replyToPostNumber":76,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":40,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66883,"postNumber":79,"raw":"疯狂。。。\n![IMG_7529|230x500](/uploads/image/25/4a/254a2afcc91ab18a7a3c66bccdd4752f0451eb1acce6ae08f34549f3c24c1e9f.avif)","cooked":"

疯狂。。。
\n $\"IMG_7529\"$

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-12 17:04:12.989947","updatedAt":"2025-10-12 17:04:12.989947","replyToPostNumber":78,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":4,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66886,"postNumber":80,"raw":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\n\n2 Hours Ago\n\n## Trump says ‘Don’t worry about China’ in latest Truth Social post\n\nU.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday put up another Truth Social post that appeared to ease investor concerns regarding rising U.S.-China trade tensions. It comes after another post on Friday that sent the stock market tumbling in a major rout. The S&P 500 saw its worst day going back to April.\n\n“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”\n\n*— Sarah Min*","cooked":"\n

2 Hours Ago

Trump says ‘Don’t worry about China’ in latest Truth Social post

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday put up another Truth Social post that appeared to ease investor concerns regarding rising U.S.-China trade tensions. It comes after another post on Friday that sent the stock market tumbling in a major rout. The S&P 500 saw its worst day going back to April.

“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

— Sarah Min

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-13 00:36:53.401073","updatedAt":"2025-10-13 00:36:58.530616","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":113,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":2,"publicVersion":2,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66887,"postNumber":81,"raw":"怎么没跌多少\n但也不敢继续切仓/加仓不操作了","cooked":"

怎么没跌多少
\n但也不敢继续切仓/加仓不操作了

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-13 01:44:59.365841","updatedAt":"2025-10-13 01:44:59.365841","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":21,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/a7/a3/a7a3f86ac04b30a3177766813966fa48ce68b0e1cc009a8d274e34ab13a43ce9.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66889,"postNumber":82,"raw":"taco🌮","cooked":"

taco🌮

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-13 04:03:28.381906","updatedAt":"2025-10-13 04:03:28.381906","replyToPostNumber":80,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":1,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/54/54/5454f44e713b53c012953b2de450d2539979427ce4ccbd5683c76257f88ee733.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"[right]好吧。[/right]","signatureCooked":"

好吧。

"}},{"id":66890,"postNumber":83,"raw":"想继续买点纳指，但是没钱了\n感觉市场在修复","cooked":"

想继续买点纳指，但是没钱了
\n感觉市场在修复

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-13 04:30:00.138831","updatedAt":"2025-10-13 04:30:00.138831","replyToPostNumber":81,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":20,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66924,"postNumber":84,"raw":"今天没绿","cooked":"

今天没绿

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-13 14:15:51.025671","updatedAt":"2025-10-13 14:15:51.025671","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":4,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66945,"postNumber":85,"raw":"减持黄金，由于短期波动过大\n\n草了，下午开盘哪位大哥，所有黄金 ETF 插了个 2% 的针，5 分钟估计买了 5 亿进来。早点买我全部送给它了。","cooked":"

减持黄金，由于短期波动过大

草了，下午开盘哪位大哥，所有黄金 ETF 插了个 2% 的针，5 分钟估计买了 5 亿进来。早点买我全部送给它了。

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为什么你发完就暴跌了，从 +6 跌倒 +1

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黄金肯定一股不卖的，没买的也不用买了。

今天空了大半仓位，这个月目前盈利是 4.5%

明天盘尾看看能不能抄底

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-14 14:31:19.587144","updatedAt":"2025-10-14 14:31:19.587144","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":48,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":66968,"postNumber":88,"raw":"今天开盘又跌 :joy_cat:\n全靠黄金对冲","cooked":"

今天开盘又跌 😹
\n全靠黄金对冲

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-14 15:02:51.43891","updatedAt":"2025-10-14 15:02:51.43891","replyToPostNumber":83,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":13,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":66970,"postNumber":89,"raw":"抄底 what？","cooked":"

抄底 what？

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-14 15:15:41.738813","updatedAt":"2025-10-14 15:15:41.738813","replyToPostNumber":87,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":3,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":67026,"postNumber":90,"raw":"开盘下沙的科芯和创新药？","cooked":"

开盘下沙的科芯和创新药？

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-15 14:04:08.970591","updatedAt":"2025-10-15 14:04:08.970591","replyToPostNumber":89,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":12,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":67030,"postNumber":91,"raw":"我几天前建仓创新药 ETF，这几天亏得最多的就是它 :laughing:\n还好有金 ETF 对冲了风险\n\n什么对冲基金 Hedge Fund\n\n美国还有日本 ETF 全都小亏清仓了，感觉政经不稳定，天天关注相关新闻，有点心烦\n\n准备解套后全卖了，买点货币 ETF/城投债，略比银行存款利率高点当理财了，定投黄金 ETF","cooked":"

我几天前建仓创新药 ETF，这几天亏得最多的就是它 😆
\n还好有金 ETF 对冲了风险

什么对冲基金 Hedge Fund

美国还有日本 ETF 全都小亏清仓了，感觉政经不稳定，天天关注相关新闻，有点心烦

准备解套后全卖了，买点货币 ETF/城投债，略比银行存款利率高点当理财了，定投黄金 ETF

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-15 14:28:19.247226","updatedAt":"2025-10-15 14:32:29.15283","replyToPostNumber":90,"replyCount":2,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":114,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"admin":true,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"","signatureCooked":null}},{"id":67033,"postNumber":92,"raw":"创新药本来就不是短期的，看到明年底吧。\n\n创新药只要没利好就是利空，资金自然外流下跌。\n\n大跌大加，小跌小加慢慢来吧","cooked":"

创新药本来就不是短期的，看到明年底吧。

创新药只要没利好就是利空，资金自然外流下跌。

大跌大加，小跌小加慢慢来吧

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-15 15:45:19.421364","updatedAt":"2025-10-15 15:45:19.421364","replyToPostNumber":91,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":54,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":182,"username":"duroy","name":"duroy"},{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":4668,"username":"IO","name":null}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":178,"username":"Hypocrisy","name":"rotartsinimdA","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/ce/f3/cef3773e378e161524cc7523c8a63dff0698d22802b0c1ab669894d395ee36a3.avif","admin":false,"moderator":true,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":67261,"postNumber":93,"raw":"听说现在金价开始跌了？","cooked":"

听说现在金价开始跌了？

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-21 16:38:41.89393","updatedAt":"2025-10-21 16:38:41.89393","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":3,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":11,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/f7/1b/f71bbda87a32de08df517fe7ee4a14e3f63bfd1b2105d3ddb8ba1f4c2eaa1c29.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"[right]——發自我的手機[/right]","signatureCooked":"

——發自我的手機

"}},{"id":67262,"postNumber":94,"raw":"好像是什么单日最大跌幅","cooked":"

好像是什么单日最大跌幅

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保持看好金

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币安的 USDT 理财年化能有 10% 🥲

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-22 02:28:35.72498","updatedAt":"2025-10-22 02:28:35.72498","replyToPostNumber":91,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":12,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":67270,"postNumber":97,"raw":"不怕，越跌越买 :grinning_face_with_big_eyes:","cooked":"

不怕，越跌越买 😃

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-22 02:29:04.242796","updatedAt":"2025-10-22 02:29:04.242796","replyToPostNumber":93,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":8,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"mingyao","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false},{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":67273,"postNumber":98,"raw":"币圈这么狠。听起来风险挺小的，实际有哪些没考虑到的风险？\n\n什么永续合约之类的金融创新确实聪明。前几天听人讲一倍杠杆都能爆仓，听傻了","cooked":"

币圈这么狠。听起来风险挺小的，实际有哪些没考虑到的风险？

什么永续合约之类的金融创新确实聪明。前几天听人讲一倍杠杆都能爆仓，听傻了

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-22 06:18:20.142971","updatedAt":"2025-10-22 06:28:14.268886","replyToPostNumber":96,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":3,"wordCount":64,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":3,"users":[{"id":2877,"username":"Zerick","name":null},{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325"},{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":2,"publicVersion":2,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null,"avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/0d/cd/0dcdf69d213b6798002779ad4b729567cd4d889ee4a56c07a8c4454e8b563219.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":67279,"postNumber":99,"raw":"我买的那个是活期的，只要币安不跑路，问题应该不大\nBTC 的活期能到 20%\n羊毛出在羊身上，合约杠杆这种东西还是不敢碰","cooked":"

我买的那个是活期的，只要币安不跑路，问题应该不大
\nBTC 的活期能到 20%
\n羊毛出在羊身上，合约杠杆这种东西还是不敢碰

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-22 10:24:15.135193","updatedAt":"2025-10-22 10:24:15.135193","replyToPostNumber":98,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":2,"wordCount":52,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":2,"users":[{"id":346,"username":"hoist","name":null},{"id":2902,"username":"1313","name":"ᐕ)ﾉ"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

\n"}},{"id":67280,"postNumber":100,"raw":"## prompt：如何构建 delta 中性策略做空波动率\n\n## AIGC\n\n好的，这是一个非常专业且实际的问题。在资产波动率非常大的时期（通常伴随着市场恐慌、大幅涨跌），构建 Delta 中性策略做空波动率，既是机会也是挑战。机会在于波动率高企时，期权价格（尤其是时间价值）非常昂贵，做空能获得更高的潜在收益；挑战在于风险控制难度极大，容易因标的资产价格的剧烈波动而导致 Delta 中性失衡，造成巨大亏损。\n\n下面我将详细阐述构建策略的步骤、核心要点以及至关重要的风险管理。\n\n### 核心逻辑：做空波动率 = 卖出期权 + 保持 Delta 中性\n\n做空波动率的本质是赌标的资产在未来一段时间内的**实际波动率**会低于当前期权价格所隐含的**隐含波动率**。当实际波动小于预期时，期权价格会下跌，我们通过卖出期权来获利，并通过动态对冲来消除标的资产方向性风险的影响。\n\n### 主要策略选择\n\n在波动率非常高时，主要有两种经典的 Delta 中性做空波动率策略：\n\n#### 1. 卖出跨式组合\n\n这是最直接、最纯粹的做法空波动率策略。\n\n* **操作**：**同时卖出**相同标的、相同到期日、相同行权价的**一张认购期权**和**一张认沽期权**。\n* **适用场景**：你强烈认为市场将会进入盘整，价格不会大幅偏离当前行权价。高波动率使得这两张期权的权利金都非常可观。\n* **盈亏特性**：\n * **最大盈利**：收到的全部权利金。\n * **盈亏平衡点**：行权价 ± 收取的总权利金。\n * **风险**：理论上是无限的。如果标的价格大幅向上或向下突破盈亏平衡点，亏损会迅速扩大。\n\n#### 2. 卖出宽跨式组合\n\n这是卖出跨式组合的温和版本，提供了更大的价格安全垫，但权利金收入也相应减少。\n\n* **操作**：**同时卖出**相同标的、相同到期日，但**行权价不同**的期权。通常卖出**虚值认购期权**和**虚值认沽期权**。\n* **适用场景**：你认为市场会保持在一定区间内震荡，但不确定具体位置。相比跨式，它对价格运动的容忍度更高。\n* **盈亏特性**：\n * **最大盈利**：收到的全部权利金。\n * **盈亏平衡点**：较低的行权价（认沽端） - 收取的总权利金，以及较高的行权价（认购端）+ 收取的总权利金。\n * **风险**：同样是无限的，但因为行权价之间有一段“无风险区间”，需要更大的价格运动才会开始亏损。\n\n**在波动率极高时如何选择？**\n通常更倾向于**卖出宽跨式**。因为市场已经非常不稳定，留给跨式组合的容错空间太小。宽跨式通过牺牲一部分权利金，换取了更大的价格波动容忍度，在心理上和风险控制上都更易于管理。\n\n---\n\n### 构建与管理的详细步骤\n\n假设我们选择在波动率极高的市场环境下，构建一个**卖出宽跨式组合**。\n\n**第一步：策略构建**\n\n1. **选择标的**：选择一个流动性好的标的资产（如股指 ETF、大型蓝筹股）。\n2. **选择到期日**：避免选择太近的到期日。高波动环境下，短期价格“噪音”太大，容易被打到止损。建议选择 1-3 个月后到期的期权，给予市场更多时间来平息，同时也让时间价值衰减（Theta）的作用更明显。\n3. **选择行权价**：\n * **认购期权行权价**：选择你认为价格难以突破的阻力位上方（虚值）。\n * **认沽期权行权价**：选择你认为价格难以跌破的支撑位下方（虚值）。\n * **原则**：行权价之间的距离越宽，策略越安全，但权利金收入越低。你需要在高波动率提供的丰厚权利金和自身风险承受能力之间找到平衡。\n\n**第二步：初始 Delta 中性调整**\n\n在开仓后，你的头寸不一定是完全 Delta 中性的。\n`总 Delta = 认购期权 Delta + 认沽期权 Delta + 标的资产 Delta（如为 0）`\n\n* 卖出的认购期权 Delta 为负。\n* 卖出的认沽期权 Delta 为正。\n* 由于是虚值期权，它们的 Delta 绝对值之和通常不等于 0。\n* **调整**：通过买卖一定数量的标的资产，使整个头寸的净 Delta 接近于零。例如，如果净 Delta 为 +0.15，你可以卖出 0.15 份标的资产（或等比例的期货/期权）来对冲。\n\n**第三步：动态对冲 - 这是策略成败的关键！**\n\nDelta 不是一成不变的，它会随着标的价格、时间、波动率的变化而变化（这就是 Gamma 风险）。在高波动环境下，Gamma 风险尤其突出。\n\n* **何时对冲？**\n 1. **定期间隔对冲**：例如，每天收盘前固定调整一次 Delta。简单，但可能在日内大幅波动时失效。\n 2. **按 Delta 阈值对冲**：**这是更推荐的方法**。设定一个 Delta 容忍度，例如当净 Delta 的绝对值超过**0.30**时，就进行对冲，使其回归零。在高波动时期，这个阈值应该设得**更小**（例如 0.20），因为价格变化快，Delta 偏移也快。\n 3. **按价格点位对冲**：当标的价格每变动一定幅度（如 1%）时进行对冲。\n\n* **如何对冲？**\n * 当标的价格上涨，你的头寸会变成净 Delta 为负（因为卖出的认购期权负 Delta 绝对值变大），你需要**买入**标的资产来对冲。\n * 当标的价格下跌，你的头寸会变成净 Delta 为正（因为卖出的认沽期权正 Delta 绝对值变大），你需要**卖出**标的资产来对冲。\n\n**第四步：了结策略**\n\n1. **持有到期**：如果标的价格始终在你设定的行权价区间内波动，你可以赚取全部权利金。这是最理想的情况。\n2. **波动率回落**：当市场恐慌平息，隐含波动率从高位显著下降时，即使还没到期，你也可以选择提前平仓（买入平仓你卖出的期权），锁定大部分利润。\n3. **止损离场**：这是生存的法则。\n\n---\n\n### 高波动环境下的特殊风险与风控要点\n\n1. **Gamma 风险（跳跃风险）**：\n * **问题**：高波动率通常伴随着高 Gamma。这意味着标的价格的微小变动会引起 Delta 的剧烈变化。在盘后或跳空开盘时，你可能没有机会对冲，导致一开盘就面临巨大的方向性风险暴露。\n * **对策**：\n * **减小头寸规模**！这是最重要的风控手段。高波动下的潜在亏损放大，必须用更小的仓位来应对。\n * 考虑使用价差策略（如铁鹰式期权）来限制最大亏损，虽然这会牺牲一部分收益。\n * 避免在重大事件（如 FOMC 会议、财报）前开仓。\n\n2. **Vega 风险（波动率风险）**：\n * **问题**：你做空 Vega，赌波动率下降。但如果波动率继续上升，即使标的价格没动，你的头寸也会因为期权升值而亏损。\n * **对策**：密切关注隐含波动率的走势。如果波动率不降反升，并且突破了你的容忍限度，应果断止损。\n\n3. **交易成本**：\n * **问题**：动态对冲需要频繁买卖标的资产，高波动时期买卖价差可能扩大，导致对冲成本急剧升高，侵蚀利润。\n * **对策**：在对冲频率和成本之间权衡。使用流动性最好的标的和工具（如期货）进行对冲。\n\n4. **资金管理**：\n * **绝对法则**：为这个策略分配的资金必须是你可以完全承受损失的。永远不要用“卖跨”去赌博。\n * 确保有足够的保证金来应对最坏情况下的追加保证金通知。\n\n### 总结：高波动率下做空波动率的行动清单\n\n1. **策略选择**：优先考虑**卖出宽跨式组合**，以获得更大的价格缓冲。\n2. **仓位管理**：**显著降低**仓位规模，通常为正常市况下的 1/3 到 1/2。\n3. **行权价选择**：选择足够虚值的行权价，确保盈亏平衡点远离当前价格。\n4. **动态对冲**：采用**更严格的 Delta 阈值**（如|Delta| > 0.20）进行频繁、小额的调整。\n5. **明确止损**：设定基于**隐含波动率**和**总亏损**的双重止损线，并严格执行。例如，隐含波动率继续上涨 10%，或总亏损达到初始保证金的 20%，立即平仓。\n6. **关注事件**：避开所有已知的重大宏观事件和个股财报日。\n\n最后，请记住，在波动率极高的市场中做空波动率，就像在风暴中捕鱼，虽然鱼可能又大又肥，但翻船的风险也成倍增加。**严谨的纪律、敏捷的执行和保守的仓位是生存和盈利的根本。** 建议在实盘操作前，通过模拟交易充分理解和体验动态对冲的过程和挑战。","cooked":"

prompt：如何构建 delta 中性策略做空波动率

AIGC

好的，这是一个非常专业且实际的问题。在资产波动率非常大的时期（通常伴随着市场恐慌、大幅涨跌），构建 Delta 中性策略做空波动率，既是机会也是挑战。机会在于波动率高企时，期权价格（尤其是时间价值）非常昂贵，做空能获得更高的潜在收益；挑战在于风险控制难度极大，容易因标的资产价格的剧烈波动而导致 Delta 中性失衡，造成巨大亏损。

下面我将详细阐述构建策略的步骤、核心要点以及至关重要的风险管理。

核心逻辑：做空波动率 = 卖出期权 + 保持 Delta 中性

做空波动率的本质是赌标的资产在未来一段时间内的实际波动率会低于当前期权价格所隐含的隐含波动率。当实际波动小于预期时，期权价格会下跌，我们通过卖出期权来获利，并通过动态对冲来消除标的资产方向性风险的影响。

主要策略选择

在波动率非常高时，主要有两种经典的 Delta 中性做空波动率策略：

1. 卖出跨式组合

这是最直接、最纯粹的做法空波动率策略。

操作：同时卖出相同标的、相同到期日、相同行权价的一张认购期权和一张认沽期权。
适用场景：你强烈认为市场将会进入盘整，价格不会大幅偏离当前行权价。高波动率使得这两张期权的权利金都非常可观。
盈亏特性：\n
- 最大盈利：收到的全部权利金。
- 盈亏平衡点：行权价 ± 收取的总权利金。
- 风险：理论上是无限的。如果标的价格大幅向上或向下突破盈亏平衡点，亏损会迅速扩大。
\n

2. 卖出宽跨式组合

这是卖出跨式组合的温和版本，提供了更大的价格安全垫，但权利金收入也相应减少。

操作：同时卖出相同标的、相同到期日，但行权价不同的期权。通常卖出虚值认购期权和虚值认沽期权。
适用场景：你认为市场会保持在一定区间内震荡，但不确定具体位置。相比跨式，它对价格运动的容忍度更高。
盈亏特性：\n
- 最大盈利：收到的全部权利金。
- 盈亏平衡点：较低的行权价（认沽端） - 收取的总权利金，以及较高的行权价（认购端）+ 收取的总权利金。
- 风险：同样是无限的，但因为行权价之间有一段“无风险区间”，需要更大的价格运动才会开始亏损。
\n

在波动率极高时如何选择？
\n通常更倾向于卖出宽跨式。因为市场已经非常不稳定，留给跨式组合的容错空间太小。宽跨式通过牺牲一部分权利金，换取了更大的价格波动容忍度，在心理上和风险控制上都更易于管理。

构建与管理的详细步骤

假设我们选择在波动率极高的市场环境下，构建一个卖出宽跨式组合。

第一步：策略构建

选择标的：选择一个流动性好的标的资产（如股指 ETF、大型蓝筹股）。
选择到期日：避免选择太近的到期日。高波动环境下，短期价格“噪音”太大，容易被打到止损。建议选择 1-3 个月后到期的期权，给予市场更多时间来平息，同时也让时间价值衰减（Theta）的作用更明显。
选择行权价：\n
- 认购期权行权价：选择你认为价格难以突破的阻力位上方（虚值）。
- 认沽期权行权价：选择你认为价格难以跌破的支撑位下方（虚值）。
- 原则：行权价之间的距离越宽，策略越安全，但权利金收入越低。你需要在高波动率提供的丰厚权利金和自身风险承受能力之间找到平衡。
\n

第二步：初始 Delta 中性调整

在开仓后，你的头寸不一定是完全 Delta 中性的。
\n总 Delta = 认购期权 Delta + 认沽期权 Delta + 标的资产 Delta（如为 0）

卖出的认购期权 Delta 为负。
卖出的认沽期权 Delta 为正。
由于是虚值期权，它们的 Delta 绝对值之和通常不等于 0。
调整：通过买卖一定数量的标的资产，使整个头寸的净 Delta 接近于零。例如，如果净 Delta 为 +0.15，你可以卖出 0.15 份标的资产（或等比例的期货/期权）来对冲。

第三步：动态对冲 - 这是策略成败的关键！

Delta 不是一成不变的，它会随着标的价格、时间、波动率的变化而变化（这就是 Gamma 风险）。在高波动环境下，Gamma 风险尤其突出。

\n
何时对冲？
\n
1. 定期间隔对冲：例如，每天收盘前固定调整一次 Delta。简单，但可能在日内大幅波动时失效。
2. 按 Delta 阈值对冲：这是更推荐的方法。设定一个 Delta 容忍度，例如当净 Delta 的绝对值超过0.30时，就进行对冲，使其回归零。在高波动时期，这个阈值应该设得更小（例如 0.20），因为价格变化快，Delta 偏移也快。
3. 按价格点位对冲：当标的价格每变动一定幅度（如 1%）时进行对冲。
\n
\n
如何对冲？
\n
- 当标的价格上涨，你的头寸会变成净 Delta 为负（因为卖出的认购期权负 Delta 绝对值变大），你需要买入标的资产来对冲。
- 当标的价格下跌，你的头寸会变成净 Delta 为正（因为卖出的认沽期权正 Delta 绝对值变大），你需要卖出标的资产来对冲。
\n

第四步：了结策略

持有到期：如果标的价格始终在你设定的行权价区间内波动，你可以赚取全部权利金。这是最理想的情况。
波动率回落：当市场恐慌平息，隐含波动率从高位显著下降时，即使还没到期，你也可以选择提前平仓（买入平仓你卖出的期权），锁定大部分利润。
止损离场：这是生存的法则。

高波动环境下的特殊风险与风控要点

\n
Gamma 风险（跳跃风险）：
\n
- 问题：高波动率通常伴随着高 Gamma。这意味着标的价格的微小变动会引起 Delta 的剧烈变化。在盘后或跳空开盘时，你可能没有机会对冲，导致一开盘就面临巨大的方向性风险暴露。
- 对策：\n
  - 减小头寸规模！这是最重要的风控手段。高波动下的潜在亏损放大，必须用更小的仓位来应对。
  - 考虑使用价差策略（如铁鹰式期权）来限制最大亏损，虽然这会牺牲一部分收益。
  - 避免在重大事件（如 FOMC 会议、财报）前开仓。
  \n
\n
\n
Vega 风险（波动率风险）：
\n
- 问题：你做空 Vega，赌波动率下降。但如果波动率继续上升，即使标的价格没动，你的头寸也会因为期权升值而亏损。
- 对策：密切关注隐含波动率的走势。如果波动率不降反升，并且突破了你的容忍限度，应果断止损。
\n
\n
交易成本：
\n
- 问题：动态对冲需要频繁买卖标的资产，高波动时期买卖价差可能扩大，导致对冲成本急剧升高，侵蚀利润。
- 对策：在对冲频率和成本之间权衡。使用流动性最好的标的和工具（如期货）进行对冲。
\n
\n
资金管理：
\n
- 绝对法则：为这个策略分配的资金必须是你可以完全承受损失的。永远不要用“卖跨”去赌博。
- 确保有足够的保证金来应对最坏情况下的追加保证金通知。
\n

总结：高波动率下做空波动率的行动清单

策略选择：优先考虑卖出宽跨式组合，以获得更大的价格缓冲。
仓位管理：显著降低仓位规模，通常为正常市况下的 1/3 到 1/2。
行权价选择：选择足够虚值的行权价，确保盈亏平衡点远离当前价格。
动态对冲：采用更严格的 Delta 阈值（如|Delta| > 0.20）进行频繁、小额的调整。
明确止损：设定基于隐含波动率和总亏损的双重止损线，并严格执行。例如，隐含波动率继续上涨 10%，或总亏损达到初始保证金的 20%，立即平仓。
关注事件：避开所有已知的重大宏观事件和个股财报日。

最后，请记住，在波动率极高的市场中做空波动率，就像在风暴中捕鱼，虽然鱼可能又大又肥，但翻船的风险也成倍增加。严谨的纪律、敏捷的执行和保守的仓位是生存和盈利的根本。 建议在实盘操作前，通过模拟交易充分理解和体验动态对冲的过程和挑战。

\n","createdAt":"2025-10-22 10:42:49.201801","updatedAt":"2025-10-22 10:42:49.201801","replyToPostNumber":93,"replyCount":0,"likeCount":1,"wordCount":2769,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[{"reaction":"❤️","count":1,"users":[{"id":5905,"username":"PipaQinse233","name":"PipaQinse233"}],"hasReacted":false}],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":4148,"username":"sad-dharma-vipralopa","name":"Echo est ubi sum","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/fd/e3/fde3022e639c0b35239b5c831c0f8ea3600eceb69353bcc2fb5e795f79d789ca.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":null,"signatureCooked":null}},{"id":67306,"postNumber":101,"raw":"最近非常火的 AI 炒币，诸神大战\n我估计最后都得平仓 :smiling_face_with_tear:\nhttps://nof1.ai/","cooked":"

最近非常火的 AI 炒币，诸神大战
\n我估计最后都得平仓 🥲

https://nof1.ai/

","createdAt":"2025-10-23 07:51:20.300989","updatedAt":"2025-10-23 07:51:20.300989","replyToPostNumber":null,"replyCount":1,"likeCount":0,"wordCount":25,"liked":false,"bookmarked":false,"polls":[],"reactions":[],"wiki":false,"version":1,"publicVersion":1,"deletedAt":null,"isAnonymous":false,"user":{"id":5151,"username":"Soyo34325","name":"Soyo34325","avatarUrl":"/uploads/image/9d/e5/9de500d3afb55c0fe71e319832f2af75532222efe94bd3de9aea21f0f5c55707.avif","admin":false,"moderator":false,"signatureRaw":"ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！","signatureCooked":"

ぜーんぶ弾けなーい！

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